donald trump strategy

Shortly before the US election, it is worth taking a look at leaders like Donald Trump. Why do people accept his lies? Why do they perhaps even actively participate in them? 

How can it be that normal people suddenly switch off their common sense? And how can a conservative party become so radicalized? Why is there (still) no understanding of this in Germany?

These are questions that one inevitably has to ask when looking at the USA. We observe the developments, worry and struggle to understand. In the past, we would indeed have been faced with a puzzle. Thanks to new findings from psychological research, however, the phenomenon can now be precisely described and explained using three points.

Firstly, Trump is incredibly charismatic, but in Germany he doesn’t reach people with that. Secondly, under certain circumstances charisma causes people to give up their own thinking and behave in ethically questionable ways. Thirdly, Trump’s vision is extremely clever at taking away Americans’ fear of change. How does that work? Let’s break it down in detail.

A super short introduction: what do we know about charisma?

First, here are the scientific facts about charisma. Charisma consists of value-based, emotional and/or symbolic signals. Charisma is a decisive factor for success in leadership and can be measured objectively. Charisma is partly innate, but to a significant extent can also be learned. Anyone who wants to lead successfully should definitely think about charisma. This happens far too little – especially in business. Strange.

Charisma works through three components. Aristotle already knew this and called this triangle logos (metaphors, rhetorical questions, contrasts, stories and lists), ethos (values, empathy, goals and confidence) and pathos (voice, expression, unconventional behavior and humor).

Charisma may be extremely powerful, but from an ethical and moral perspective it is completely neutral. It is no coincidence that the greatest luminaries in human history are just as charismatic as the cruelest tyrants – a quick look at German history is enough to show this.

Intelligence helps, but you don’t have to be particularly extroverted to have high charisma, see Mahatma Gandhi, both Obamas or Greta Thunberg. Narcissism correlates with charisma, which is why charisma should definitely be assessed when selecting personnel, for example – but narcissism should also be assessed for control purposes. As a manager, you would like to have a Mahatma Gandhi on your team, but less so a Donald Trump. You can find literature below.

1. Trump’s charisma works – but not in Germany

It is obvious that Trump has a particularly strong charisma. For example, he speaks in images and stories. He largely avoids coherence in terms of content, but he still finds a metaphor for that: “the weave”. He talks incoherently and manages to exaggerate even that as a unique skill. The phrase “turning shit into gold” is not far off.

By the way, Trump may appear explicitly anti-science, but he acts like a little scientist himself and systematically tests hypotheses. First he tries out new slogans, then he tests his audience’s reactions to them and then buries punchlines that don’t work. Take, for example, his supposed insult to the “laughing Kamala”. Of course, these negative nicknames are another charisma tactic. But he tried the “laughing Kamala” for a while, the insult didn’t go down as well as he wanted and quickly disappeared into obscurity.

Trump is somehow totally charismatic, but that doesn’t go down well in Germany. Strange, isn’t it?

“Value congruence” What is that?

The reason for this lies in a single word: “value congruence”: Charismatic signals have an effect above all when there is a common basis. In polarized subject areas in particular, charisma fizzles out when there are strongly divergent value systems. This is the case with Trump. His charisma does not work in Germany because he propagates ideals that are typically connoted in the US:

Freedom: A highly libertarian concept of freedom that has nothing to do with Hegel and is hardly compatible.

Patriotism: A patriotism that clearly tends towards racism and isolationism, which is viewed with great skepticism in Germany.

Religion: A view of religion that is fundamentalist, largely ignores women’s rights and is frowned upon by the majority in Germany.

All of this is relatively alien to us in Germany – but the wind is changing. The AfD is winning in East Germany and is getting stronger everywhere, Sweden, the Netherlands, Hungary, etc. are already on the same course. In this respect, the incongruence of values ​​in Germany should probably be marked with a “still”.

But wait! Something is missing. What about Trump’s bigotry? Isn’t there a contradiction there? How can Trump even seriously talk about religion and win over evangelicals when he is clearly preaching water and drinking wine himself? Nothing that has been said so far explains why people believe his lies! And what does that have to do with the fact that people who were once loyal to the state suddenly become rabid people who attack the Capitol? All of that is true. Let’s move on to point 2.

2. Trump’s charisma seduces people to silence and unethical behavior

So charisma works really well – but regardless of its ethical and moral content. OK. But why do people accept all the lies, why do they ignore the facts so passively, and where does the blatant aggressiveness come from?

Donald Trump’s charisma is like a pop concert in a stadium: loud, rousing and full of enthusiastic fans who inhale every word. Despite all the enthusiasm, some very important things fall by the wayside.

The fans are quickly so impressed that their critical objections are muted. While the fueling of Trump’s ideas is being pushed, the criticism looks increasingly bleak. Nobody wants to be the bogeyman and disrupt the flow of the great master – especially not when Trump stages the show so spectacularly. This effect has even been proven internationally, once in Asia and once by Heike Bruch from St. Gallen with European data. This is how silence is created. But silence is one thing – active lying is another matter entirely. How does it work?

Why do people play this evil game?

Two negative effects are mutually dependent: the legitimization of unethical behavior and an increase in cynicism.

How does the legitimization of unethical behavior come about? There is Donald Trump with his typical gestures – hands wide, voice loud, words sharp. People hang on his every word. The moral compass slips very easily. Trump’s charismatic appearance creates such a strong identification that the issue suddenly becomes “bigger than oneself. ” “I’ll question that” becomes “everything for the team” – and questionable actions suddenly become socially acceptable.

The exciting thing is that it doesn’t even have to be intentional! Trump presents his visions, his eyes sparkle, the energy in the room rises – and before you know it, you’re thinking outside the box to achieve the common goal. Bending the truth here, turning a blind eye there – for the “bigger picture”, of course. Moral barriers crumble when the end justifies the means through sheer enthusiasm. The thought of “twisting” information or interpreting a contract in a creative way suddenly becomes an act of heroism. Unethical actions become proof of loyalty as long as they serve “the bigger picture”. 

Trump speaks of “winning at any cost,” and the fans ignore the usual ethical rules. A trio from Bochum (including my current, highly esteemed colleague Jochen Overbeck-Gurt) has not only described this process theoretically, but has also traced it empirically.

3. Trump’s charisma takes away people’s fear of the future

Changes generate fear. Always. Regardless of the content. And often irrationally. People react with resistance even when the need for change is recognized, when the goals are in line with their own interests and when there is actually goodwill towards those involved. Sounds crazy, but that’s how it is. Anyone who has ever tried to implement a change knows this.

What can we do? Well, a vision, i.e. an image of the future for the respective community, has been proven to help. It makes it clear where we are actually headed and what is cool about it. But such visions are often far too intellectual and driven by numbers to reach people. This error is so widespread that it even has a scientific name: the “blurry vision bias”. What can we do about it? Learn from Trump. A vision of the future that is too progressive has an intimidating effect. Above all, it threatens social identity, i.e. people’s self-concept. People don’t like new things because they are seen as a threat to their idea of ​​their own self.

Suddenly new genders appear? Yuck. I don’t want to deal with that.

I should get vaccinated because some weird pandemic is coming? Stay away from me.

People with strange names and different skin colors are supposed to be integrated into the job market so that Germany can get its demographic problem under control? That’s not going to happen.

But there is an antidote that takes away people’s feeling of threat. Instead of painting progressive visions of the future in bright colors and thereby unwittingly triggering fear, Trump does things very differently – and with him populists around the world. The secret recipe is the reference to the past. A vision of the future generates less fear when it appears to be justifiable and consistent with the past. A good vision of the future is a vision of continuity with the past. This was not only clearly written down in a groundbreaking work by a Dutch team, but was empirically proven in both a field study and a laboratory experiment.

What does this have to do with Trump and the populists? Well, their visions are so attractive because they all have a strong connection to the past. This creates a feeling of consistency, direction and continuity. People like that.

“Make America great AGAIN!” makes it clear that Trump’s vision of the future is essentially the continuation of a glorified past. In Great Britain, it was no different with Brexit. “Taking BACK Control!” is a return to the past. It works. Continuity through a continuation of history. And has anyone ever wondered why Putin keeps drawing such stupid parallels to Tsarist Russia? Exactly.

Conclusion

Charisma is incredibly effective, but ethically and morally neutral. Trump takes advantage of this and – knowingly or unknowingly – makes use of the three effects described.

Comments? What’s it like? Are you on board or do you disagree? Fire away!

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