Thomas Koch puts Gartner’s prediction that AI could cost three out of four media planners their jobs by 2028 into perspective. Despite all the upheaval, his conclusion is surprisingly optimistic.
Gartner (“World Authority on AI”) has published a forecast that will knock the wind out of your sails. “The market researchers predict that by 2028, more than 70 percent of global advertising spending—over 80 percent in the US—will be delivered through self-service advertising platforms, where AI will have a significant impact on media planning, bidding strategies, and campaign results.” They conclude that AI will cost three out of four media planners their jobs by 2028. Media buyers, who are not explicitly mentioned, are likely not included because they will be even more severely affected. For them, AI will cost all jobs.
With his statement in 2025, “Within five years, there is no human that touches a media plan,” GroupM CEO Brian Lesser declared 2030 the year of the demise of media planning developed by humans. Now, the end is supposed to come even sooner. Media agency clients are in no way prepared for this, let alone the thousands of media planners and buyers in Germany alone, who will have to be laid off as early as 2027. And since 2026 is almost over, they have just one year left to reorient themselves.
Holy shit! This is the end for media planners and buyers. However, I want to remain objective for a moment and try to put the whole thing into perspective. To do this, one has to look at the events from three different viewpoints: that of the agencies, the advertisers, and of course, the media professionals affected.
Some agencies are (briefly) laughing up their sleeves.
We must distinguish between publicly traded agency groups and independent media agencies. For the CEO of a network agency, who is only responsible for three figures (revenue, headcount, return on investment), a brief era of bliss dawns. At least on paper. Because the KPI “headcount” almost completely disappears from their calculations and flows directly into the return on investment. A media agency with 1,000 employees will consist of only 250 in two years. Personnel costs, once the largest expense, are reduced to a negligible amount.
The remaining planners, as Frank Puscher rightly points out in his editorial assessment, will be trained as strategists. However, since some of these agencies haven’t developed a strategy in years, the question arises: who will train them? The good news: distributing advertising budgets across four to six digital self-service platforms doesn’t actually require a strategy, just AI. Former Chief Investment Officers will become Chief Distribution Officers. And a handful of such officers can easily handle the distribution in a part-time capacity.
The situation is different for independent agencies, which have always placed great emphasis on consulting and, above all, individual support for their clients, whom they sometimes refer to as partners. They will use AI to develop more effective mix strategies and provide further training for their employees. They will sleep soundly at night.
The tens of thousands of media experts who were laid off remain free and are founding new, independent consulting firms that will make life quite difficult for their former employers. More on that in a moment. The collapse of the publicly traded advertising holding companies is projected for 2030.
Advertisers released into freedom
Advertisers who have long since brought large parts of their media tasks in-house feel vindicated and are further expanding their media expertise. They are taking meticulous care not to become dependent on platform operators through increasing automation and are developing their media mix strategy into a discipline of excellence. Their revenues from platforms are more likely to decrease than increase.
Many advertisers who previously relied on large media agencies are now reorienting themselves. The selection is more extensive than expected: independent agencies, freelance consultants, startups, in-house solutions – there’s something for everyone. They’ve been warned about the development of online platforms and are starting to ask questions: What criteria determine the composition and weighting of the media mix? Where will my campaign be delivered? What is the actual reach of our campaign? With each question, they gain a better understanding.
They are specifically targeting corporations (see recent press reports) that continue to prioritize digital and social media, and are directly attacking their brands with high reach among real consumers and ample mental availability. And they are succeeding. Their newfound media freedom is increasingly bringing them joy.
Former employees are travelers who cannot be stopped.
The tens of thousands of laid-off agency employees can’t even find work with marketers. After the platforms have finally taken over 70% of the market, journalistic media – TV and radio stations, print media – practically cease to exist and need anything but advertising sales.
The tectonic shift caused by agency giants is creating plenty of new job opportunities: at independent agencies, consultancies, media in-housing firms, AI service providers – and also through startups. Since AI is perfectly capable of handling media buying, optimization, monitoring, execution, and billing, young, adventurous planning agencies are focusing on media mix, media-eats-social-for-breakfast strategies, the experience economy, and impact scenarios, thus venturing into uncharted territory.
My conclusion: At first, I thought the Gartner report would infuriate me and trigger a writing frenzy. But now that the dust has settled and the likely consequences are becoming clearer, I’ve found my peace with this development. The only ones who shot themselves in the foot are those who triggered the AI hysteria. Everyone else has sought and found alternatives and market niches, thereby intrinsically improving the state of media planning.
Now we just need to ensure, through intelligent media mix strategies, that the media diversity we need for such successful strategies is maintained. That promises to be really good.
